253
FXUS64 KJAN 121727 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DROP INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH NOT ONLY HANG TOUGH BUT ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER, MAINLY AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE 00Z SAT JAN SOUNDING
SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.02IN. THUS, WL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, HEAT STRESS
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE IN OUR WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ESPECIALLY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105F SATURDAY
AND AROUND 106F SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH
A "LIMITED" FOR HEAT STRESS IN OUR GRAPHICS FOR NOW. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HEAT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL BE TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING HEAT, WILL BE THE
HUMID CONDITIONS THAT'LL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
APPROACH 105F ACROSS THE CWA, WHERE A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR HEAT
STRESS EXISTS, THEY'RE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MORE IN THE
105-110F RANGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORIES BEING HOISTED FOR PORTIONS OF, IF NOT
ALL OF, THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT'LL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES, WITH MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS EXPECTED AS LOWS ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT. /19/22/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IF OBSERVED WITHIN AN AREA TAF SITE'S RESPECTED
AERODROME, CONVECTION COULD REDUCE BOTH CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR STATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS, BUT FREQUENT
LIGHTING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH ALL OF TODAY'S
ACTIVITY. ONCE CONVECTION PASSES AND/OR DISSIPATES, CATEGORIES
WILL RETURN TO VFR STATUS, AND REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
TO CALM OVERNIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 40
MERIDIAN 72 95 73 96 / 20 40 10 30
VICKSBURG 74 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 30
HATTIESBURG 74 97 75 97 / 10 40 10 40
NATCHEZ 73 94 73 94 / 10 30 10 30
GREENVILLE 74 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 40
GREENWOOD 74 95 75 95 / 20 40 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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