141
FXUS64 KJAN 131731 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
GRAPHIC MESSAGING HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO EXPAND THE
"MARGINAL RISK" FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (3000-4100 J/KG MU CAPE), JUST
ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AT 15-25 KNOTS, AND PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES IN THE 2 INCH RANGE, WILL YIELD ISOLATED STORMS THAT ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IN THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION BUT HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE 00Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.03IN. THUS, A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
OUR CWA WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, HEAT STRESS CONCERNS WILL INCREASE IN OUR WEST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ESPECIALLY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 105F AGAIN SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA
WITH A "LIMITED" FOR HEAT STRESS IN OUR GRAPHICS FOR NOW. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND THE EURO SHOW THE SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTH INTO THE REGION, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR
CWA, WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOKING AT CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, IT
APPEARS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105-110 RANGE NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN DAYTIME HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (A FEW
SPOTS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 80S). THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE "LIMITED" RISK FOR HEAT STRESS BEING UPGRADED
TO AN "ELEVATED" RISK IN OUR HWO GRAPHICS FOR THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK MAY BE
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. FURTHERMORE, HEAT
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DISSIPATING BY THE EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA SITES. IF OBSERVED,
CONVECTION COULD REDUCE BOTH CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
STATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 52 KNOTS, BUT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ON OF TODAY'S CONVECTION. ONCE CONVECTION PASSES AND/OR
DISSIPATES, CATEGORIES WILL RETURN TO VFR STATUS, AND REMAIN AS
SUCH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 94 75 96 / 10 30 0 20
MERIDIAN 73 95 74 96 / 10 30 0 30
VICKSBURG 74 95 75 96 / 10 20 0 20
HATTIESBURG 74 96 75 98 / 10 30 0 40
NATCHEZ 73 93 73 95 / 10 30 0 20
GREENVILLE 73 93 74 94 / 10 30 10 20
GREENWOOD 74 94 75 96 / 10 30 0 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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