428
FXUS64 KJAN 141722 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1222 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD DEEPER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY, WITH TROUGHING AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES, INTO THE MID-SOUTH, AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE REGION, THE CONTINUATION OF HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM OVER THE CWA AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS ONLY MIXING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING THE 105F MARK, WITH A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR HEAT
STRESS ACROSS THE AREA.
DESPITE SOME SCOURING OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN THAT OF SUNDAY'S. STILL, SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE AS OUR AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. I'LL MAKE SOME SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE ON
THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PERISISTENT TROUGH TO
OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES, HEAT STRESS
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER OUR WHOLE CWA. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 105F AGAIN MONDAY. WL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
WHOLE CWA WITH A "LIMITED" FOR HEAT STRESS IN OUR GRAPHICS. /22/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
MODEL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO IS STILL SHOWING THE
1020MB SFC HIGH STARTING TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS HEADING INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTH INTO THE REGION, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA,
WHICH IN TURN, WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOKING AT CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, IT APPEARS THAT
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 106-110 RANGE NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY GIVEN DAYTIME HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (A FEW SPOTS COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 80S). AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR THE TUESDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS
HEAT STRESS. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET
THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK. IF HEAT TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, THEN
A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK WILL BE INTRODUCE IN LATER UPDATES.
FURTHERMORE, HEAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS
WELL.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DISSIPATING
BY THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST BY MID-
WEEK. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST, THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING FOR A LOW PROBABILITY (10-30% CHANCE)
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH PW'S IN THE 90TH PERCENTILES AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION, A "SLIGHT" RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WAS INTRODUCED BY WPC.
ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE TIMEFRAME GETS CLOSER.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGHER
POPS (AROUND 50-85%) ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA SITES.
IF OBSERVED, CONVECTION COULD REDUCE BOTH CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR STATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, BUT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY OF TODAY'S CONVECTION. ONCE CONVECTION PASSES AND/OR
DISSIPATES, CATEGORIES WILL RETURN TO VFR STATUS, AND REMAIN AS
SUCH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5- 8 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 96 75 97 / 20 20 0 20
MERIDIAN 74 97 75 97 / 20 20 10 40
VICKSBURG 75 95 76 97 / 20 10 0 10
HATTIESBURG 75 98 76 97 / 30 30 10 60
NATCHEZ 74 95 73 96 / 20 20 0 20
GREENVILLE 74 95 76 96 / 20 20 0 10
GREENWOOD 74 95 76 97 / 20 20 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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