305
FXUS64 KJAN 152309 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
MADE A FEW UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE
OF THAT SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT, THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 UNTIL 7PM LATER THIS EVENING.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT THANKS TO 1020MB SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HREF GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW LOW
PROBABILITIES (AROUND 20-30%) OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
FOG GRAPHICS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND DAWN. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR CWA. BECAUSE OF
THIS, NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SFC HIGH
HOVERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO
NORTHEASTERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW STRONG SCATTERED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ELSEWHERE, AREAS
WEST OF I-55 WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS PEAKING THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S (WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 80S) WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAT INDICES ACROSS OUR CWA TO BE IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE.
A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NW DELTA AND WEST OF I-55 WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 110 DEGREES.
REGARDLESS, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
WEDNESDAY. A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND THE "LIMITED" RISK ACROSS EAST MS
HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO AN "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA FROM 10AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 7PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. /CR/
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE LOOKING AHEAD INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO
THE 1020MB SFC HIGH HOVERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION. AN
"ELEVATED" RISK FOR HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AREAS ALONG THE NW DELTA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
NE LA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 110
DEGREES. FOR THIS REASON, A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS. FURTHERMORE, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS (BETWEEN 80-95%) ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
SYSTEM: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL MONITORING A MEDIUM
PROBABILITY (AROUND 40%) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO OUR REGION
AND PWATS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILES, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
(WPC) IS STILL INDICATING A "SLIGHT" RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CEILING FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THAT WILL BE LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON THE LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION AND
TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS PRIMARILY IMPACTING LA WHILE SKIRTING OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS.
WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN THE WHOLE SCENARIO,
WILL HOLD OFF ON MORE FORMAL FLOOD THREAT MESSAGING, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE GENERAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 98 76 95 / 0 10 10 60
MERIDIAN 75 98 75 93 / 0 20 20 70
VICKSBURG 76 97 75 96 / 0 10 10 40
HATTIESBURG 77 99 76 92 / 10 50 40 90
NATCHEZ 74 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 60
GREENVILLE 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 76 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/CR/LP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page