463
FXUS64 KJAN 161148
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
648 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM, CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
PERSISTENT DANGEROUS HEAT WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO EFFECT AT 10AM
AND CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
WHILE MULTIPLE AREAS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105-110 RANGE,
THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS WEST OF I-55 THAT COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES. AN "ELEVATED" HEAT RISK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
SYSTEM: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
MEDIUM PROBABILITY (40%) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO OUR REGION
AND PWATS IN THE 90TH TO 99TH PERCENTILES, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION CAN PERSIST, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) HAS SHIFTED THE "SLIGHT" RISK AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WEST OF THE AREA, AND MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS PRIMARILY IMPACTING LA WHILE SKIRTING OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. THERE HAD BEEN A SIZEABLE CONTINGENT OF GUIDANCE THAT
EVENTUALLY PULLED THE REMNANTS INTO OUR AREA AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT THIS HAS TRENDED LESS. IN ANY CASE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE WHOLE SCENARIO AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE
PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY THE HEAT.
SW/EC
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTN/EVNG TSRA SHOULD BE IN THE HBG/PIB AREA
AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASCENT BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 98 76 93 75 / 10 10 60 10
MERIDIAN 97 75 93 74 / 20 10 70 10
VICKSBURG 97 77 96 76 / 10 10 40 20
HATTIESBURG 98 76 92 76 / 40 40 90 30
NATCHEZ 96 75 93 74 / 10 10 60 20
GREENVILLE 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 98 77 98 76 / 10 0 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
SW/EC/
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