917
FXUS64 KJAN 170357
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1057 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI, ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW. MINOR EDITS TO PRECIPITATION
GRIDS IN THE 0-3 HOUR TIME FRAME WERE SUBSEQUENTLY NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRENDS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY DOWNWARD AND IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT LITTLE IF
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS I-55.
RENEWED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THEN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY PROMOTES RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WE'LL SEE A DOWNTREND OVERNIGHT
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE WETTEST DAY IN THE
NEXT WEEK ON FRIDAY AS THE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAKES CLOSEST
APPROACH, MEANDERING INLAND NEARBY. THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT STILL
APPEARS LOW WITH MOST AREAS SEEING UNDER AN INCH OF TOTAL
ACCUMULATION INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD ANY BANDED TRAINING OCCUR,
SOME GREATER THAN ZERO FLOODING RISK COULD DEVELOP AND WOULD
LIKELY BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WERE THAT TOP
OCCUR. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THOSE AREAS MAY SEE
MORE RAINS OVERALL, THE TOTALS WILL BE BELOW FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER RIDGE PROMOTING INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. /86/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF NOTE IN OUR REGION ARE THE BROAD WEST-EAST
ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CURRENT LOOPS OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DO A GOOD JOB ILLUSTRATING THE CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND A HOT SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MORE VIGOROUS
FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AT
THE CURRENT TIME, THE CENTER OF ROTATION WITH THAT SYSTEM WAS RIGHT
AROUND PANAMA CITY, FL.
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY REFLECTS THE IDEA THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO POSE AN ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN
OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER
RAIN HAVE ALWAYS BEEN DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE COAST, BUT A
LESS COHERENT LOW TO GET PICKED UP IN THE UPPER-LEVEL STEERING
PATTERN WILL MEAN LESS FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FARTHER
NORTH. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR RAINFALL PUTS MEDIAN
(MIDDLE VALUE) AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND
90TH PERCENTILE (UPPER RANGE) AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE SAME
AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT CONCERNING ESPECIALLY IF FALLING OVER
SEVERAL HOURS. AND THE FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY STAGNANT, SO SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE MOVING. THEREFORE, HAVE STOPPED
ADVERTISING THE LOW-END FLASH FLOOD RISK WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT FOCUS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY REESTABLISH ITS PRESENCE OVER THE REGION
AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT VALUES PLACE
A 594DAM RIDGE SQUARELY OVER THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS. SHOULD PROMOTE HOT WEATHER AND KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE MORE RESTRICTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS MORE AROUND EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN MS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MORE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED NEXT
WEEK. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 10Z WHEN LOWERED CEILINGS
AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHERN SITES. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TROUGH THE DAY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES
WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AND SCATTERED STORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
TRANSIENT DROPS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES, MVFR/IFR, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 94 75 91 / 10 40 10 80
MERIDIAN 75 92 74 91 / 30 50 10 80
VICKSBURG 77 96 76 91 / 0 30 10 70
HATTIESBURG 76 92 76 92 / 40 80 30 90
NATCHEZ 76 94 74 89 / 10 60 20 90
GREENVILLE 76 96 75 92 / 0 10 0 50
GREENWOOD 77 98 76 93 / 0 10 10 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
LP/NF/LP
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