398
FXUS64 KJAN 170554 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI, ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW. MINOR EDITS TO PRECIPITATION
GRIDS IN THE 0-3 HOUR TIME FRAME WERE SUBSEQUENTLY NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TRENDS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY DOWNWARD AND IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT LITTLE IF
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS I-55.
RENEWED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THEN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY PROMOTES RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WE'LL SEE A DOWNTREND OVERNIGHT
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE WETTEST DAY IN THE
NEXT WEEK ON FRIDAY AS THE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAKES CLOSEST
APPROACH, MEANDERING INLAND NEARBY. THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT STILL
APPEARS LOW WITH MOST AREAS SEEING UNDER AN INCH OF TOTAL
ACCUMULATION INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD ANY BANDED TRAINING OCCUR,
SOME GREATER THAN ZERO FLOODING RISK COULD DEVELOP AND WOULD
LIKELY BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WERE THAT TOP
OCCUR. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THOSE AREAS MAY SEE
MORE RAINS OVERALL, THE TOTALS WILL BE BELOW FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
BEYOND THIS ACTIVITY, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER RIDGE PROMOTING INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. /86/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF NOTE IN OUR REGION ARE THE BROAD WEST-EAST
ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CURRENT LOOPS OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DO A GOOD JOB ILLUSTRATING THE CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND A HOT SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MORE VIGOROUS
FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AT
THE CURRENT TIME, THE CENTER OF ROTATION WITH THAT SYSTEM WAS RIGHT
AROUND PANAMA CITY, FL.
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY REFLECTS THE IDEA THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO POSE AN ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN
OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER
RAIN HAVE ALWAYS BEEN DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE COAST, BUT A
LESS COHERENT LOW TO GET PICKED UP IN THE UPPER-LEVEL STEERING
PATTERN WILL MEAN LESS FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FARTHER
NORTH. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR RAINFALL PUTS MEDIAN
(MIDDLE VALUE) AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND
90TH PERCENTILE (UPPER RANGE) AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE SAME
AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT CONCERNING ESPECIALLY IF FALLING OVER
SEVERAL HOURS. AND THE FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY STAGNANT, SO SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE MOVING. THEREFORE, HAVE STOPPED
ADVERTISING THE LOW-END FLASH FLOOD RISK WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT FOCUS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY REESTABLISH ITS PRESENCE OVER THE REGION
AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT VALUES PLACE
A 594DAM RIDGE SQUARELY OVER THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS. SHOULD PROMOTE HOT WEATHER AND KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE MORE RESTRICTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS MORE AROUND EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN MS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MORE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED NEXT
WEEK. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 10Z WHEN MVFR
CIGS WL DEVELOP OVER EAST AND SE MS TAF SITES. THESE CIGS WL
IMPROVE BUT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SE AND AFFECT THE
CNTRL AND SRN TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z. TAF SITES IN THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 91 74 91 / 20 80 20 70
MERIDIAN 74 90 74 93 / 20 80 10 60
VICKSBURG 76 91 75 90 / 20 80 20 60
HATTIESBURG 76 91 75 94 / 30 90 20 70
NATCHEZ 75 88 74 90 / 20 90 20 70
GREENVILLE 75 91 75 90 / 10 50 10 50
GREENWOOD 76 94 75 90 / 10 60 10 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
LP/NF/22
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