121
FXUS64 KJAN 050551
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. A DIRER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY, WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS COINCIDES WITH THE REGION'S GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP HEAT INDICES MORE
MANAGEABLE TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR APPROACHING 90F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS WE MOVE INTO MID-WEEK, TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55, BRINGING AN INCREASE TO
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 100-105F RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED CONCERNS ARE NOT YET
ANTICIPATED, WE MAY NEED TO HIGHLIGHT LOCALIZED IMPACTS LATER IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW BUT NOT ZERO. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WHERE THE RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAKER.
FARTHER WEST, DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNDER STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. RAIN COVERAGE, WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVERALL WHICH
IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST, WITH MOST CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. /KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
BASED ON CURRENT OBS WITH MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND IMPACT MOST SITES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING.
THEREAFTER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 92 72 93 / 10 30 10 20
MERIDIAN 70 90 70 91 / 10 30 10 40
VICKSBURG 72 93 72 95 / 10 20 0 10
HATTIESBURG 72 93 73 93 / 20 50 20 50
NATCHEZ 72 93 72 94 / 10 30 10 20
GREENVILLE 71 93 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
GREENWOOD 70 93 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/EC/
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