266
FXUS64 KJAN 060552
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1252 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THROUGH MONDAY:
ASIDE FROM SOME REBUILDING OF THE HEAT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN IS
PERSISTENT AND TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE SUMMER WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND TWO
HIGH CENTERS TO OUR WEST AND EAST, ONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THE OTHER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NWP GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
INTENSIFY, AND THE EXPANDING HEAT DOME WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. GIVEN THAT GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW COOL H850 TEMP
ANOMALIES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ALONG/EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR,
THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING CRITICAL HEAT STRESS THRESHOLDS IS
LIMITED TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FORMAL MESSAGING FOR NOW GIVEN OUR AREA IS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF WARM ANOMALIES.
OTHERWISE, IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND THIS WEATHER
PATTERN FAVOR BETTER DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST MS AND THAT IS WHERE GREATER AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT PATTERN AND RECENT STRATUS EVENTS, THERE IS
AT LEAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 93 72 93 / 0 10 0 20
MERIDIAN 70 91 70 91 / 10 20 0 30
VICKSBURG 72 93 73 95 / 0 10 0 10
HATTIESBURG 73 93 72 93 / 10 40 0 30
NATCHEZ 72 93 72 93 / 10 10 0 10
GREENVILLE 72 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC
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