795
FXUS64 KJAN 061149
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
649 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY:
ASIDE FROM SOME REBUILDING OF THE HEAT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN IS
PERSISTENT AND TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE SUMMER WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND TWO
HIGH CENTERS TO OUR WEST AND EAST, ONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THE OTHER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NWP GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
INTENSIFY, AND THE EXPANDING HEAT DOME WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. GIVEN THAT GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW COOL H850 TEMP
ANOMALIES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR, THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING CRITICAL HEAT STRESS
THRESHOLDS IS LIMITED TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FORMAL HEAT MESSAGING WITH OUR
AREA ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF WARM ANOMALIES, AND STILL SEVERAL
DAYS FROM A MORE MEANINGFUL THREAT THAT COULD DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL TEND
TO BE FOCUSED OVER EAST/SOUTHEAST MS, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES WHEN CONSIDERING THAT CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS THIS PATTERN.
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SEVERE MICROBURST POTENTIAL ARE
WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD WITH VERTICAL TOTALS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO BE ~ 24, AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 3000 J/KG. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CONFINED TO MAINLY THE HBG/PIB AREA.
ADDITIONAL STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 72 93 72 / 20 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 91 70 91 70 / 20 10 20 0
VICKSBURG 93 72 93 73 / 10 0 10 0
HATTIESBURG 93 73 93 72 / 30 10 40 0
NATCHEZ 92 72 93 72 / 20 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 92 71 94 72 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC
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