256
FXUS64 KJAN 070855
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HEAT STRESS IS
EXPECTED AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE,
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND STABLE AS OF LATE,
BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE GREATER SHIFTING OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IN THE NWP GUIDANCE THAT COULD INTENSIFY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS. ONE THING
THAT GIVES US PAUSE IN MESSAGING FOR THE HEAT AT THIS POINT IS
THE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM
THE GULF. SUCH AN ONSHORE PATTERN WOULD HELP TEMPER THE HEAT.
GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
NWP GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL TEND TO
BE FOCUSED OVER EAST/SOUTHEAST MS, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES WHEN CONSIDERING THAT CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS THIS PATTERN.
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SEVERE MICROBURST POTENTIAL ARE
WEAK WITH VERTICAL TOTALS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE ~ 25,
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 3000 J/KG. GOING
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, INCREASING HEAT WOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND POTENTIALLY BOOST THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY IN THE
HBG/PIB AREA. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 72 93 72 / 10 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 90 70 91 70 / 20 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 94 73 94 72 / 10 0 10 0
HATTIESBURG 93 72 93 72 / 40 10 30 0
NATCHEZ 93 72 92 72 / 10 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 95 72 94 73 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC
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