478
FXUS64 KJAN 080545
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...SCARCE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST &
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IS DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL ERODE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD DAY BREAK FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.
I'LL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS EVENING'S UPDATE.
/19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND ALLOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTH, A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING THE RETURN
OF EASTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER 2+ INCH PWAT AIR TO OUR REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND MORE HUMIDITY BY THE EARLY
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT SOME PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD END UP WITH DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS
(HEAT INDEX >105), BUT RAIN CHANCES LIMIT CONFIDENCE OF HEAT IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHRA HAVE MANAGED TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE GLH AREA
TONGIHT, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT. OTHERWISE, ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY IN THE HBG/PIB AREA. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 93 73 92 / 0 10 10 40
MERIDIAN 71 91 72 90 / 0 10 10 50
VICKSBURG 73 95 74 94 / 0 10 0 30
HATTIESBURG 73 93 74 92 / 0 20 10 60
NATCHEZ 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 0 30
GREENVILLE 73 95 74 95 / 0 10 0 20
GREENWOOD 73 96 74 94 / 0 10 0 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/
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