350
FXUS64 KJAN 090543
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...I'VE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE DELTA
REGION THIS EVENING. NBM POP GUIDANCE DIDN'T ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND
THE HRRR DISSIPATED THIS CLUSTER BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE CWA.
REGARDLESS, I'VE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WHERE THERE INITIALLY WERE NONE VIA THE NBM, INTO THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. WHILE THIS CONVECTION ISN'T SEVERE, IT WILL PACK
SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
I'VE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON TRENDS. OTHER THAN THIS AND THE CHANGE TO POPS MENTIONED ABOVE,
NO FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE ON THIS EVENING'S
UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
A BRIEF HIATUS/REPRIEVE/VACATION/MERCY FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WE
EXPERIENCED THROUGH MUCH OF JULY IS SLOWLY ENDING, AT LEAST TO SOME
MEASURE, AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. A "LIMITED" RISK FOR HEAT IS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AS HEAT
INDICES CREEP UP ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THAT OUTLOOK AREA WILL APPROACH 105
F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE MOMENT, HOWEVER, THIS INCREASE IN HEAT APPEARS TO ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR MID AUGUST AND WHILE
CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS OPPRESSIVE
AS THE LAST ROUND OF HEAT (AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK).
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE ALONGSIDE THE MOISTURE INCREASES
AND WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY
BY SUNDAY WHEN CHANCES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 30% NEAR HIGHWAY
82 TO AROUND 50% ALONG HIGHWAY 84. ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AREN'T EXPECTED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR QUITE (SEASONABLY) LOW BUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
GUSTY/STRONG STORM OR TWO AS THUNDERSTORM CORES COLLAPSE.
THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT MUCH DEVIATION FROM THIS PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE MIGHT GET.
TROPICS BECAME MORE ACTIVE OVERALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO AND THIS
BURST OF ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. SOME LONGER-TERM GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ROBUST DEVELOPMENT FROM AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE (AEW). HOWEVER,
IT IS NOW THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AND IT DOESN'T TAKE INTENSE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO SURMISE A STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN MID AUGUST. REGARDLESS, THERE REMAINS NO CAUSE
FOR ALARM AND ONLY NORMAL, SEASONAL PREPAREDNESS/CAUTION IS
NECESSARY. /86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 73 92 74 / 10 0 40 10
MERIDIAN 90 71 90 72 / 10 10 40 10
VICKSBURG 94 74 94 74 / 10 0 30 10
HATTIESBURG 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 50 20
NATCHEZ 93 73 92 73 / 10 0 40 10
GREENVILLE 94 72 94 74 / 10 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 95 73 94 74 / 0 0 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/KP
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