594
FXUS64 KJAN 091120 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THIS WEEKEND: OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STOUT 595DAM HIGH TO OUR WEST ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL HELP DEEPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRY TO PUSH INTO
OUR REGION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA AS WELL. THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT A
LITTLE WARMER. OUR NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE LOWER 90S WHILE OUR
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL TOP OUR IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHILE THE WESTERN HALF TOPS OUT IN THE MID 90S. THE 00Z SATURDAY JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PWAT JUST SHY OF AN INCH AND A HALF. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS
SURGING BACK ABOVE TWO INCHES. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER HUMIDITY THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID 90F TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105F TODAY AND SUNDAY. A
GRAPHIC ADVERTISING A "LIMITED" RISK FOR HEAT STRESS WILL BE CARRIED
THROUGH SUNDAY. /22/
NEXT WEEK...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK. A "LIMITED" RISK FOR
HEAT IS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AS HEAT INDICES CREEP UP ACCOMPANIED BY
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN
THAT OUTLOOK AREA WILL APPROACH 105F EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS INCREASE IN HEAT STRESS APPEARS
TO ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR MID AUGUST AND
WHILE CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
OPPRESSIVE AS THE LAST ROUND OF HEAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEK ALONGSIDE THE MOISTURE
INCREASE AND WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
MONDAY. ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREN'T EXPECTED WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR QUITE (SEASONABLY) LOW BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF GUSTY/STRONG STORM
OR TWO AS THUNDERSTORM CORES COLLAPSE.
THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT MUCH DEVIATION FROM THIS PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE MIGHT GET.
TROPICS BECAME MORE ACTIVE OVERALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO AND THIS
BURST OF ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. SOME LONGER-TERM GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ROBUST DEVELOPMENT FROM AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE (AEW). HOWEVER,
IT IS NOW THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AND IT DOESN'T TAKE INTENSE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO SURMISE A STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN MID AUGUST. REGARDLESS, THERE REMAINS NO CAUSE
FOR ALARM AND ONLY NORMAL, SEASONAL PREPAREDNESS/CAUTION IS
NECESSARY. /86/22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 73 92 74 / 10 0 40 10
MERIDIAN 90 71 90 72 / 10 10 40 10
VICKSBURG 94 74 94 74 / 10 0 30 10
HATTIESBURG 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 50 20
NATCHEZ 93 73 92 73 / 10 0 40 10
GREENVILLE 94 72 94 74 / 10 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 95 73 94 74 / 0 0 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/22
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