542
FXUS64 KJAN 100533
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING,
BUT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
TOMORROW, AND ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. POPS
WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT STILL IN MOSTLY
THE 20-40% CHANCE RANGE FOR MOSTLY INTERSTATE 20 AND SOUTHWARD BY
AFTERNOON. A FEW HOT SPOTS ALONG THE MORE HUMID RIVER VALLEYS
COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 DEGREES, BUT NO NEED FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
THE "LIMITED" RISK FOR HEAT STRESS CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREA COULD APPROACH
105 F INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE AS EVIDENCED BY AN
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD TO
RISING HEIGHTS LOCALLY, SUPPORTING THE WARMING TREND. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE RISK AREA/SEVERITY MAY GROW AS WE APPROACH
LATE WEEK AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THAT REGARD. INCREASES IN
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR TOMORROW AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY AND
SINCE THAT TIME A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF AFRICA, AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE IN AUGUST. THE NHC DESIGNATES THIS FEATURE WITH A
40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. GUIDANCE
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE AND THUS THE WAVE WILL JUST BEAR WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AS COULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. /86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 40 20
MERIDIAN 91 72 91 72 / 20 10 40 20
VICKSBURG 93 74 95 75 / 20 20 50 20
HATTIESBURG 93 75 92 75 / 40 20 60 30
NATCHEZ 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 50 20
GREENVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 30 20
GREENWOOD 95 74 95 75 / 10 10 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/86/KP
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