222
FXUS64 KJAN 100737
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
>591DAM RIDGE TO OUR WEST ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO PROVINCES THAT WILL HELP DEEPEN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRY TO PUSH
INTO OUR REGION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA AS WELL. THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT A
LITTLE WARMER. OUR NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE LOWER 90S WHILE OUR
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE
WESTERN HALF TOPS OUT IN THE MID 90S. THE 00Z SUNDAY JAN SOUNDING
HAD A PWAT OF 1.66IN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS SURGING BACK ABOVE TWO INCHES. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID
90F TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105F
TODAY IN OUR WEST. A GRAPHIC ADVERTISING A "LIMITED" RISK FOR HEAT
STRESS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH TODAY. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
THE CURRENT EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL YIELD TO
A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERN
STREAM RIDGE SHOULD PHASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS BY WEEK'S END. HEAT WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN WITH NEAR-105 MAX HEAT INDICES FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY. THEN BROADER COVERAGE OF 105-115
TYPE HEAT INDICES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
HEAT MESSAGING WITH POSSIBLE PRODUCTS NEEDED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW
WEEK. MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
AREA AS WELL. /NF/
TROPICS:
TROPICAL EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY AND
SINCE THAT TIME A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF AFRICA, AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE IN AUGUST. THE NHC DESIGNATES THIS FEATURE WITH A
40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. GUIDANCE SPREAD
REMAINS LARGE AND THUS THE WAVE WILL JUST BEAR WATCHING OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO AS COULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. /86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 40 20
MERIDIAN 91 72 91 72 / 20 10 40 20
VICKSBURG 93 74 95 75 / 20 20 50 20
HATTIESBURG 93 75 92 75 / 40 20 60 30
NATCHEZ 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 50 20
GREENVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 30 20
GREENWOOD 95 74 95 75 / 10 10 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/NF/86/KP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page