961
FXUS64 KJAN 110524 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1224 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT, AS MOISTURE SUBTLY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH, AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DESPITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THEN TOWARD DAY BREAK
MONDAY, SOME PATCHY STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON TRENDS, NO
MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS EVENING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASES IN HUMIDITY BOTH NEAR THE
SURFACE AND THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN INCREASED
HEAT STRESS CONCERNS AS WELL AS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE WESTERN GULF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE
WEST AWAY, WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERAL DEEP LAYER
RIDGING AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. HEAT
CONCERNS GROW FURTHER BY MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND TWO SEPARATE
OUTLOOKS FOR HEAT REMAIN IN PLACE, THE FIRST VALID THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE ARE IN A "LIMITED" OUTLOOK WITH THE SECOND REACHING FURTHER
EASTWARD AND INTRODUCING SOME POCKETS OF "ELEVATED" RISK. WHILE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 F WILL BE MOST COMMON, THE AREAS OF HIGHLIGHTED
HIGHER RISK COULD SEE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES RISE IN TO THE 105-115 F
RANGES. HEAT STRESS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT HAZARD CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT PRODUCTS (ADVISORIES/WARNINGS) COULD BE
NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEK.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY AMID QUITE LIMITED SHEAR/FORCING,
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THOUGH A BRIEF STRONG GUST
OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONGER CORE THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 20-40%
CHANCE RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW BUT INCREASE TO THE 40-70% RANGES BY
MID WEEK. IN GENERAL, SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE
BEST DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SEABREEZE AFFECTS AS
WELL AS SOMEWHAT LOCALLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. /86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED BY 20Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES. AWAY FROM ANY TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 91 74 91 / 10 70 20 70
MERIDIAN 73 87 72 90 / 20 70 20 70
VICKSBURG 75 93 74 92 / 20 60 20 60
HATTIESBURG 75 89 74 92 / 30 80 20 80
NATCHEZ 73 91 73 91 / 20 60 20 60
GREENVILLE 74 94 74 91 / 10 40 20 50
GREENWOOD 74 93 74 93 / 10 50 20 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/86/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page