256
FXUS64 KJAN 110745
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TODAY IN THE
SOUTH, THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASING HEAT STRESS IN OUR WEST.
OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A >591DAM RIDGE WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
CWA. THE RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT A
LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE WESTERN
HALF TOPS OUT IN THE MID 90S. THE 00Z MONDAY JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT
OF 1.84IN. THIS IS UP FROM AN INCH AND A HALF. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH PWATS SURGING BACK ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY THAT WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MID 90F TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105F AND 110F TODAY IN PORTIONS OF OUR WEST. THE
AREAS OF GREATEST HEAT STRESS; "ELEVATED" AREAS ARE AROUND THE WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
55 WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105F AND A GRAPHIC
ADVERTISING THIS "LIMITED" RISK FOR HEAT STRESS WILL BE CARRIED
AGAIN TODAY. /22/
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK, WITH HEAT CONTINUING TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER BROAD RIDGING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD, PEAKING BY WEEK'S END. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN THE
SOUTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND, RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND HEAT WILL INCREASE. HEAT HEADLINES MAY
BE EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB TO THE 105-110 RANGE. NEXT WEEK, A
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING UP NEAR THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE HEAT AS DRIER NORTHERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED. THERE
COULD BE A BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT COULD
BREAK THE HEAT EVEN SOONER FOR OUR EAST, BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPACT OUR
AREA, IN FACT WE PROBABLY STAND TO BENEFIT./SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED BY 20Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES. AWAY FROM ANY TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 74 92 74 / 30 20 70 20
MERIDIAN 91 73 88 72 / 20 20 80 20
VICKSBURG 94 75 93 74 / 30 30 60 20
HATTIESBURG 93 75 90 74 / 40 30 80 20
NATCHEZ 93 74 91 73 / 40 30 70 20
GREENVILLE 94 75 93 74 / 10 10 40 20
GREENWOOD 95 74 93 74 / 20 20 40 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ047-048-053-060.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ016-024-026.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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