353
FXUS64 KJAN 300553
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
MID EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. MID EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED ERODE MUCH OF THE STRATUS LAYER THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS OUR CWA ALL DAY. THE LAYER OF STRATUS IS PROGGED TO SPREAD
BACK NORTH A BIT TOWARD MORNING. LOCAL RADARS ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND
BACK NORTH A BIT TOWARD MORNING AS WELL. PATCHY FOG, SOME POSSIBLY
DENSE MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUR INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER OUR
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ZONES. WL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE EXPANDING STRATUS AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
OCCUR FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:
FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE WET PATTERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST; KEEPING LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY.
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY, SETTING UP COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. DRY/COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE NEW WEEK. NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) WILL COME TOWARDS MID-
WEEK AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES (HIGHS: MID/UPPER 80S, LOWS:
MID 60S) FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
AS OF 0540Z, GLH, GWO, AND JAN CURRENTLY REPORTING VFR CEILINGS. A
MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SEVERAL
TAF SITES TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO A LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK. AFTER 06Z, CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW
SITES DROPPING DOWN TO LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST MS TAF SITES. POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST MS TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SATURDAY AND A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS UNTIL AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN BUT IN THE SOUTH
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY COME IN VCTY OF THE SE TAF SITES.
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MULTIPLE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WORSEN. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 89 68 89 / 0 10 10 20
MERIDIAN 66 88 66 87 / 0 10 10 20
VICKSBURG 68 89 68 89 / 0 10 10 20
HATTIESBURG 69 89 69 90 / 0 10 10 30
NATCHEZ 69 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 20
GREENVILLE 66 91 66 90 / 0 0 10 10
GREENWOOD 66 91 66 90 / 0 0 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/CR
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