715
FXUS64 KJAN 300859
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THROUGH THIS MORNING: COOLING OF A HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWING
THE RAINFALL EVENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF
FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WHERE OBS HAVE OCCASIONALY DIPPED TO A 1/4 MILE. HAVE A ISSUED AN
HWO GRAPHIC AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY GIVEN CONTINUED
ELEVATED DENSE FOG PROBS IN THE NEAR TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE. THE
FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS WE APPROACH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A PERSISTENT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR THE AREA
AS WE GO FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MOST OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE, BUT A FEW SNEAKY
DISTURBANCES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR THE EARLY TO
MID WEEK TIME FRAME WHEN THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNAL IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WOULD BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND PROVIDE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LIFT TO BRING GREATER SHOWER CHANCES.
BY LATE WEEK, STRONG REINFORCEMENT OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLY STRONG SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
AS OF 0540Z, GLH, GWO, AND JAN CURRENTLY REPORTING VFR CEILINGS. A
MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SEVERAL
TAF SITES TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO A LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK. AFTER 06Z, CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW
SITES DROPPING DOWN TO LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST MS TAF SITES. POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST MS TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SATURDAY AND A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS UNTIL AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN BUT IN THE SOUTH
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY COME IN VCTY OF THE SE TAF SITES.
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MULTIPLE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WORSEN. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 88 68 89 68 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 87 66 88 66 / 10 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 88 68 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
HATTIESBURG 88 69 89 69 / 30 0 10 10
NATCHEZ 86 69 88 68 / 20 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 91 66 91 66 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 92 66 91 66 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ027>033-
035>059.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023-025.
AR...NONE.
EC/CR/
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