285
FXUS64 KJAN 021124 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR DELTA
REGION. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL HELP THE
STALLED FRONT DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA.
LOCAL RADARS ALREADY HAD VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING BUT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA.
THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN NORMAL OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WILL
OCCUR IN OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LOW RAIN CHANCES AND GREATEST
ISOLATION IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHOW A DISTINCT
DIURNAL TREND BUT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK TUESDAY...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP FUNNEL IN A
COUPLE OF MINOR DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME DECENT
CHANCES (BETWEEN 25-35%) FOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS HEADING INTO THURSDAY. THIS DRY COLD FRONT WILL HELP
DAMPEN OUR CHANCES OF RAIN/T-STORMS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THIS SFC
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC HIGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (BETWEEN
25-30% ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LA). EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. FUTURE
GUIDANCE DOES BEGIN TO SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
HEADING INTO TUESDAY THANKS TO SOUTHERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ADVECTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
COULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH POPS
AROUND 30%. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CNTRL
MISSISSIPPI TAF SITES THROUGH 17Z. AFTER 17Z THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF -TSRA THROUGH 22Z AT THE TAF SITES. AWAY FROM ANY TSRA,
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 88 68 89 69 / 50 20 30 0
MERIDIAN 88 66 89 67 / 20 20 20 0
VICKSBURG 89 69 89 68 / 60 20 30 0
HATTIESBURG 90 66 92 69 / 10 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 89 68 89 68 / 40 10 20 0
GREENVILLE 88 66 87 66 / 50 30 20 0
GREENWOOD 88 67 88 66 / 50 40 30 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
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