592
FXUS64 KJAN 130508
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1208 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL BECOME BENEATH
A LARGE 592DAM RIDGE THAT IS PART OF THE OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER
THE CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1018MB RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COMBINED RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN. OUR NORMAL HIGHS
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. OUR NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE
MID 60S. /22/
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEAST REGION INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS DRY PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE. HREF
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING LOW PROBABILITIES (AROUND 10-20%) OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG GRAPHICS
AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN.
LATE-SUMMER HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. REGARDING THE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WX, RHS WILL DROP TO AROUND
35-40% ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, AREAS ACROSS THE NW DELTA, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AR, COULD SEE RHS DROP BELOW 30% WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RHS VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS WE GET THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK. DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 67 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 92 64 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 94 67 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 94 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 94 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 96 66 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 95 65 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/SAS20
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