804
FXUS64 KJAN 150813
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM, DRY CONDITIONS LARGELY CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL THE LAST FEW DAYS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S F. HUMIDITY, THOUGH, HAS BEEN SLOWLY
TRENDING UP AND WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MUCH
INTO THE 50S F AS IN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, HANGING OUT IN THE 60S F
INSTEAD. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECTS OF BOTH REDUCING ANY MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT ALSO INTRODUCING SOME ISOLATE CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. MOST AREAS STAY DRY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES THAT ARE LESS COMFORTABLE THAN WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING BUT STILL BELOW PRODUCT CRITERIA, MAXING OUT IN THE
95-100F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S F FOR MOST.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO AID IN KEEPING UPPER HEIGHTS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE LOCALLY, BUT A
PERSISTENT CENTRAL US RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM, BENIGN WEATHER WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WE'LL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT STATIC AIRMASS
REGIME OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY FROM RISING TOO MUCH BUT ALSO WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIAL HUMIDITY DIPS, TOO. THIS WILL
LIKELY HELP KEEP FIRE WEATHER DANGER SOMEWHAT LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
BY LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE MIDLATITUDE
CYCLOGENESIS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERY LOCALLY AS WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKLY
VEER SOUTHERLY. INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER/TROUGH
MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SLIP INTO OUR
THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON, THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE. EVEN SO,
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR ANY SPECIFIC 12-HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNDER 30% AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SOME SHOWERS LIKELY WON'T SEE MUCH. THE
NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED WARM/HOT CONDITIONS AND
DETERIORATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT COULD BECOME A BIGGER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER (EQUINOX, AND THE BEGINNING OF FALL, OCCURING 1 WEEK FROM
TODAY, SEPTEMBER 22.) LOOK FOR HIGHS THIS WEEK TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW/MIDDLE 90S F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F /86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 10
MERIDIAN 92 68 91 67 / 0 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 94 70 94 69 / 10 10 10 10
HATTIESBURG 94 69 93 68 / 10 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 93 69 92 69 / 10 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 95 69 94 68 / 20 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 95 69 94 68 / 10 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/LP/SAS20
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