360
FXUS64 KJAN 160515
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1215 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TONIGHT & TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO TUESDAY. AREAS OF ASCENT ROTATING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SOUTHWEST-MOVING SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A STORM OR TWO, AFFECTING
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NBM
GUIDANCE CAME IN DRY DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS, BUT SEVERAL
HI-RES MODELS PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE AS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING,
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO AGAIN MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION SPARKING MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, I'VE INTRODUCED SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION AT THAT TIME.
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OVERALL FLOW IS LACKING,
SOMEWHAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 6C/KM), VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 30, AND CURRENT ADVERTISED ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG, COULD YIELD A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER IS AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS ON MONDAY, THIS
COULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SUCH INTENSE CONVECTION. THAT SAID,
WITH CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY, LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS TUESDAY INTO
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
RELATIVELY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES
FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WILL BE
TIED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MAINLY
DURING THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THROUGH MIDWEEK, AN H5 LOW
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA'S WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD,
REMOVING THE INFLUENCE FROM THE AREA MAINTAINING A GENERALLY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE WEEK, A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD, ALLOWING A TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION, PROVIDING SOME WEAK FLOW AND
ASCENT WITH NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO THE 1.5-1.75IN RANGE. THIS SETUP COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THE OVERALL PERIOD
REMAINING SO DRY, ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN AND BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE. /KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT ANY GIVEN SITE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 70 92 69 / 10 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 91 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 93 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 93 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 93 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 93 69 93 68 / 20 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 94 68 94 67 / 20 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/KP/SAS20
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