714
FXUS64 KJAN 161515
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE LATEST NEAR
TERM FORECAST UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAIN CHANCES
TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE TRENDS IN HANDLING OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A STORM OR TWO COULD PEAK UP TO STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HAVEN'T
CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HRS. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
HEADING INTO TODAY. AREAS OF ASCENT ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
ALONG WITH A STORM OR TWO. POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LESS THAN 20%.
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE OVERALL FLOW IS LACKING,
SOMEWHAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 6C/KM), VERTICAL
TOTALS NEAR 30, AND CURRENT ADVERTISED ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG, COULD YIELD A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A PATTERN BREAKDOWN AS
CENTERS OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE EAST COAST WEAKEN. FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD BECOME
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN SYSTEM PIVOTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AVERAGE TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL - ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL ON
MOST DAYS. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY GIVEN SITE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ONGOING SHOWERS NEAR JAN AND HKS THIS
MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 69 91 69 / 20 20 10 0
MERIDIAN 91 67 92 67 / 20 20 10 0
VICKSBURG 93 69 92 69 / 30 20 20 0
HATTIESBURG 94 68 93 67 / 20 20 10 0
NATCHEZ 92 68 91 67 / 20 20 20 10
GREENVILLE 93 69 93 68 / 20 20 10 0
GREENWOOD 93 68 93 67 / 20 20 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/
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