385
FXUS64 KJAN 180203 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
903 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING
OUR WEATHER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUR CWA AS WELL RESULTING IN A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING. OUR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WARMER THAN NORMAL. OUR NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE
OUR NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE MID 80S. /22/
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO (AND
THUNDERSTORM) MAINLY ALONG NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO PICKUP STARTING NEXT WEEK TO ABOUT 20-30%
ACROSS ALL ZONES, DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN
BRINGING A BROAD TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER AR/LA/MS. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD HAVE SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS, SO IT IS ADVISED TO
STAY APPRISED OF ALL CURRENT UPDATES REGARDING NEXT WEEK'S
WEATHER PATTERN./OAJ/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY, RESULTING IN BRIEF CEILING AND
VISBY REDUCTIONS FOR THE LOCALIZED AREA IMPACTED. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WIND.
/DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 92 69 92 / 20 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 67 93 68 93 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 93 68 93 / 20 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 67 94 67 95 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 68 92 67 92 / 20 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 69 94 68 92 / 20 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 68 95 68 94 / 20 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/22/OAJ
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