026
FXUS64 KJAN 030003 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
703 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS EXPECTED INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
NEAR-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TOMORROW, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY HAS EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
A LITTLE HIGHER AROUND 500MB, A TRAPPED LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IN THE REGION.
TODAY THE MOISTURE HAD PUSHED WEST OF OUR REGION, AND EXPECT A
WAVE OF DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT TONIGHT/TOMORROW. AN ARC OF
0.8 PWAT AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA TOMORROW. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WHILE RIDGING
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL WORK TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIER
AIR FROM THE EAST WILL DROP PWATS BELOW ONE INCH BUT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK TO AN
INCH AND A QUARTER. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE MAY FUEL A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. THE NORTH MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST SITES WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /22/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST
REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT ACROSS THE AREA MID-
WEEK AS ITS CENTER DRIFTS EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT'LL WEAKEN OVER
THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE INCREASED PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE,
WILL BRING ABOUT SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL, WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION, MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THIS ONGOING LONG DURATION STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL, WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE AGAIN SUBTLY CREEPS BACK INTO THE
REGION. /22/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES, WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 59 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 63 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
06/22
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