155
FXUS64 KJAN 050538
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1238 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL THEME AS WE
GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD AS WE FINISHED UP THE WEEKEND
AND MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CHANCES,
PARTICULARLY DURING TIMES OF PEAK HEATING. BECAUSE OF A VERY
PRECIP EFFICIENT AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS OF RAINFALL CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE AVERAGE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
MUCH OF A DENT IN THE RECENT RAINFALL DEFICIT. /EC/
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FRONT'S WAKE. NOT MUCH OF
AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AS ONLY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
STILL, LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS HIGHS HOVER IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, THEN MVFR
CEILINGS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
AROUND 11KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 71 84 70 / 30 40 40 20
MERIDIAN 84 68 83 67 / 40 50 40 10
VICKSBURG 86 71 87 70 / 20 30 40 30
HATTIESBURG 83 71 85 70 / 50 50 50 10
NATCHEZ 85 69 87 70 / 30 40 40 20
GREENVILLE 88 70 85 69 / 10 40 50 40
GREENWOOD 88 70 85 69 / 10 40 50 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/19/SAS20
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