089
FXUS64 KJAN 051141
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
641 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE GENERAL THEME AS WE GO THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL POSITION
ITSELF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WITH IT,
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD SOME INCREASING,
AND MUCH NEEDED, RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ERODES HEADING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON, THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION.
IN THIS FRONT'S WAKE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS ONLY SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. STILL, SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AT TO JUST ABOVE
THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE WEEK. /19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING, THEREAFTER, OUR STRETCH OF
VFR COMES TO AN END. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VERY LOW STRATUS
<500FT IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS IN THE HWY 84/98 CORRIDORS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE EAST./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 71 84 70 / 30 40 40 20
MERIDIAN 84 68 83 67 / 40 50 40 10
VICKSBURG 86 71 87 70 / 20 30 40 30
HATTIESBURG 83 71 85 70 / 50 50 50 10
NATCHEZ 85 69 87 70 / 30 40 40 20
GREENVILLE 88 70 85 69 / 10 40 50 40
GREENWOOD 88 70 85 69 / 10 40 50 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/19/SAS20
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