981
FXUS64 KJAN 052355
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
655 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE GENERAL THEME AS WE GO THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONING ITSELF
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH IT,
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD SOME INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT A GOOD BIT OF
MOISTENING IS REQUIRED AND THIS IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ERODES HEADING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON, THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION.
IN THIS FRONT'S WAKE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS ONLY SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. STILL, SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AT TO JUST ABOVE
THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE WEEK. /19/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND LOWERING CLOUD DECKS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR, WITH POSSIBLE LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. EASTERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 84 70 89 / 40 40 30 30
MERIDIAN 69 83 68 89 / 50 50 20 20
VICKSBURG 71 86 70 89 / 40 50 30 30
HATTIESBURG 71 86 70 89 / 60 40 10 20
NATCHEZ 70 88 70 89 / 40 40 30 20
GREENVILLE 70 84 69 86 / 40 60 50 50
GREENWOOD 70 83 70 87 / 50 50 40 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/EC/KP
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