616
FXUS64 KJAN 060758
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER MORNINGS WILL RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY: PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STICK AROUND INTO
TOMORROW AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEARBY WITHIN A
FAIRLY MOIST REGIME. ONE OF THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS
DRIVING RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL LA. OVERNIGHT THIS HAS HELPED
SUSTAIN A SLOW MOVING NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH MS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TODAY, THEN ULTIMATELY EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THROUGH THE NEAR TERM,
MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED IN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS
ACROSS/NEARBY THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE DISCREPANCIES
IN RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING
RAIN BANDS RECEIVING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS
PICK UP LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
LATER THIS WEEK, IT WILL SLOWLY NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPRECIABLE DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ENDING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITHIN THE DRIER REGIME, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, BUT MORNING LOWS SHOULD
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ALBEIT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW STRATUS THROUGH MUCH THE
DAY TODAY WITH CEILINGS FROM 500-1500FT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AT SOUTHERN SITES.
HOWEVER, RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 71 88 69 / 40 30 30 20
MERIDIAN 83 68 88 68 / 50 30 30 20
VICKSBURG 86 71 89 69 / 60 40 30 10
HATTIESBURG 87 71 89 70 / 60 20 30 10
NATCHEZ 86 69 90 69 / 60 30 20 10
GREENVILLE 83 70 85 68 / 70 60 50 20
GREENWOOD 85 70 88 68 / 60 60 50 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/SAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page