737
FXUS64 KJAN 061559
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1059 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER MORNINGS WILL RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYTEM IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DIMININISHING WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
AFTER WHAT WAS PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST MS. AS
WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS BECOME LESS FOCUSED WITH
DIMINISHING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2.2 INCHES ALONG WITH LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY: PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STICK AROUND INTO
TOMORROW AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEARBY WITHIN A
FAIRLY MOIST REGIME. ONE OF THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS
DRIVING RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL LA. OVERNIGHT THIS HAS HELPED
SUSTAIN A SLOW MOVING NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH MS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TODAY, THEN ULTIMATELY EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THROUGH THE NEAR TERM,
MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED IN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS
ACROSS/NEARBY THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE DISCREPANCIES
IN RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING
RAIN BANDS RECEIVING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS
PICK UP LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
LATER THIS WEEK, IT WILL SLOWLY NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPRECIABLE DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ENDING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITHIN THE DRIER REGIME, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, BUT MORNING LOWS SHOULD
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ALBEIT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE IFR/MVFR WITH CEILINGS 700FT-1500FT THIS
MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS
AVOIDING TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS
SIGNAL FOR SOME LOW VISIBILITIES/FOG AT SOUTHERN SITES HEZ, HBG,
AND PIB, AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 71 88 69 / 80 30 30 20
MERIDIAN 83 68 88 68 / 40 30 30 20
VICKSBURG 86 71 89 69 / 70 40 30 10
HATTIESBURG 87 71 89 70 / 60 20 30 10
NATCHEZ 86 69 90 69 / 50 30 20 10
GREENVILLE 83 70 85 68 / 70 60 50 20
GREENWOOD 85 70 88 68 / 60 60 50 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/
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