597
FXUS64 KJAN 061755 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER MORNINGS WILL RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY: PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STICK AROUND INTO
TOMORROW AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEARBY WITHIN A
FAIRLY MOIST REGIME. ONE OF THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS
DRIVING RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL LA. OVERNIGHT THIS HAS HELPED
SUSTAIN A SLOW MOVING NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH MS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TODAY, THEN ULTIMATELY EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THROUGH THE NEAR TERM,
MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED IN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS
ACROSS/NEARBY THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE DISCREPANCIES
IN RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING
RAIN BANDS RECEIVING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS
PICK UP LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
LATER THIS WEEK, IT WILL SLOWLY NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPRECIABLE DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ENDING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITHIN THE DRIER REGIME, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, BUT MORNING LOWS SHOULD
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ALBEIT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE IFR/MVFR WITH CEILINGS 500FT-1500FT CAUSED BY
RAIN SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL LOW LYING MOISTURE TODAY. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY,
WHICH IS REPRESENTED IN THE TAFS BY THE VFR TEMPO GROUP. ONCE
THE SUN SETS TODAY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN AGAIN INTO
IFR/MVFR AND SHOULD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOMORROW MORNING BUT TIMING IS A A BIT HAZY THIS
FAR OUT, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SEE HOW LOW OUR
CEILINGS/HYDROMETEORS END UP GETTING TONIGHT TO GAIN A HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. WE'VE ESCHEWED MIST/FOG IN THE TAF BUT GIVEN
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 89 69 83 / 40 20 10 10
MERIDIAN 68 87 67 85 / 30 30 20 20
VICKSBURG 70 88 69 83 / 40 20 10 10
HATTIESBURG 71 89 69 90 / 20 20 10 20
NATCHEZ 70 89 69 84 / 30 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 70 85 66 80 / 60 30 10 0
GREENWOOD 70 87 67 81 / 60 40 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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