041
FXUS64 KJAN 061926
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER MORNINGS WILL RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT, DAYTIME HEATING AND FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF I-55. GIVEN THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS,
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE PRODUCING STRONG WIND SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ON THE BROADER
SCALE THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DIMINISHING OF INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUNSET. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO HAVE ANOTHER HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
DENSE FOG OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND THIS IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR MESSAGING. /EC/
TUESDAY: PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STICK AROUND TOMORROW AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MEANDER
NEARBY WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST REGIME. THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT, AND THIS WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER
THIS WEEK, IT WILL SLOWLY NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPRECIABLE
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. WITHIN THE DRIER REGIME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, BUT MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ALBEIT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
/DL/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE IFR/MVFR WITH CEILINGS 500FT-1500FT CAUSED BY
RAIN SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL LOW LYING MOISTURE TODAY. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY,
WHICH IS REPRESENTED IN THE TAFS BY THE VFR TEMPO GROUP. ONCE
THE SUN SETS TODAY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN AGAIN INTO
IFR/MVFR AND SHOULD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOMORROW MORNING BUT TIMING IS A A BIT HAZY THIS
FAR OUT, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SEE HOW LOW OUR
CEILINGS/HYDROMETEORS END UP GETTING TONIGHT TO GAIN A HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. WE'VE ESCHEWED MIST/FOG IN THE TAF BUT GIVEN
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 89 69 83 / 40 30 10 10
MERIDIAN 68 87 67 85 / 30 30 20 20
VICKSBURG 70 88 69 83 / 40 20 10 10
HATTIESBURG 71 89 69 90 / 20 30 10 20
NATCHEZ 70 89 69 84 / 30 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 70 85 66 80 / 60 30 10 0
GREENWOOD 70 87 67 81 / 60 40 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/DL/OAJ/
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