753
FXUS64 KJAN 070125 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
825 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
BUT CHANCES FOR THAT ARE LOW. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TOMORROW WITH A SIMILAR SETUP IN PLACE. NEAR-TERM WEATHER
ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE
FOG PROBABILITIES AND RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH
THE MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS AND
INCLUDED A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG IN AREAS FARTHER
NORTH. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT, DAYTIME HEATING AND FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF I-55. GIVEN THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS,
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE PRODUCING STRONG WIND SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ON THE BROADER
SCALE THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DIMINISHING OF INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUNSET. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO HAVE ANOTHER HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
DENSE FOG OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND THIS IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR MESSAGING. /EC/
TUESDAY: PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STICK AROUND TOMORROW AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MEANDER
NEARBY WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST REGIME. THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT, AND THIS WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER
THIS WEEK, IT WILL SLOWLY NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPRECIABLE
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. WITHIN THE DRIER REGIME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, BUT MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ALBEIT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHRA TO START THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND BR OR FG PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MIXING AND
LIFTING BACK TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 88 69 83 / 40 20 20 10
MERIDIAN 69 87 67 85 / 40 30 20 20
VICKSBURG 71 88 69 83 / 30 20 10 10
HATTIESBURG 71 88 69 90 / 20 30 20 20
NATCHEZ 70 90 69 84 / 20 20 10 10
GREENVILLE 70 85 66 80 / 60 30 10 0
GREENWOOD 70 87 67 81 / 60 40 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/EC
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