727
FXUS64 KJAN 070546
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
BUT CHANCES FOR THAT ARE LOW. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TOMORROW WITH A SIMILAR SETUP IN PLACE. NEAR-TERM WEATHER
ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE
FOG PROBABILITIES AND RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH
THE MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS AND
INCLUDED A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG IN AREAS FARTHER
NORTH. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT, DAYTIME HEATING AND FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF I-55. GIVEN THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS,
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE PRODUCING STRONG WIND SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ON THE BROADER
SCALE THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DIMINISHING OF INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUNSET. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO HAVE ANOTHER HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
DENSE FOG OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND THIS IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR MESSAGING. /EC/
TUESDAY: PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STICK AROUND TOMORROW AS
THE WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MEANDER
NEARBY WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST REGIME. THE LOW WILL ULTIMATELY SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT, AND THIS WILL BRING AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER
THIS WEEK, IT WILL SLOWLY NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPRECIABLE
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. WITHIN THE DRIER REGIME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, BUT MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ALBEIT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AS OF 0546Z TUESDAY, GTR IS REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AND HBG IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE OTHER TAF SITES
ARE REPORTING VFR CEILINGS TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. BETWEEN 09Z-13Z
MULTIPLE TAF SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR DUE
TO LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FG. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR STATUS BY 14Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO
VFR STATUS BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA. VFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. AMENDMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
WORSEN. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 84 62 81 / 10 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 68 85 61 82 / 20 20 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 83 62 81 / 10 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 70 90 66 86 / 20 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 69 86 63 83 / 10 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 67 80 57 78 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 67 82 58 80 / 20 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ048-049-
053>056-059>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.
AR...NONE.
NF/EC/CR
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