863
FXUS64 KJAN 231149 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
649 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE FOCUSED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE, BUT
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED IN ACCORDANCE WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL
START TO SEE MOIST RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH PWATS GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 1-1.5 INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THIS WARM FRONTAL ZONE
PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ENSURE
PREDOMINANT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PEAKS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH IS THE LIKELY WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL. GREATEST
RISK WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM ASHLEY COUNTY AR, SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS JONES
COUNTY MS. A LIMITED GRAPHIC HAS BEEN HOISTED REFLECTING THIS RISK
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WITH NO MEANINGFUL AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD WAVE, RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST AHEAD OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. VERY DRY AIR (0.2 PWAT) USHERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP FOR SOME
VERY COOL LOWS, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF 30S. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. /SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 51 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 81 49 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 80 50 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 49 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 82 51 84 60 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 79 51 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 80 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/NF
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