533
FXUS64 KJAN 232351 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
651 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE FOCUSED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
RAP/SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED ACROSS THE MS/AL BORDER.
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN DRY, LESS THAN HALF INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TICK UP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO DECOUPLED SFC
WINDS AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE NORM,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS PERSISTENCE: LEANING
TOWARDS COLDER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. THIS DROPPED LOW TEMPS A
TOUCH, FOCUSED EAST OF I-55. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE (45F TO
53F). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
KEEPING THE WEATHER FORECAST DRY AND QUIET. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA, HELPING TO SURGE MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL RISE INTO THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS AREA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE.
BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES APPEAR
LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR GHWO, WHICH CURRENTLY
INCLUDES A LIMITED FLOOD THREAT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. FLOODING MAY BECOME A GREATER CONCERN IF THE SLOWER TREND
CONTINUES, THE THREAT WILL ALSO BE REASSESSED AS THE EVENT NEARS AND
CAM GUIDANCES BECOMES AVAILABLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EAST,
A WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. IT'S
MOTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN LARGE DEGREE BY A SLOW TO MOVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH ITS COOL AND DRY INFLUENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CURRENT COOL WEATHER. HOW FAR THIS WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO
PENETRATE NORTHWARD WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. CURRENTLY, IT
APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT ANY ADJUSTMENTS NORTHWARD COULD RESULT
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY
RISKS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY/FLOODING RAINS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE 20% RANGE
AREAWIDE. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, A STRONG PUSH OF VERY DRY AND COLD AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY,
WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES./KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
WITH SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE EAST, LIGHT TO CALM SFC
WINDS TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTN (AROUND 10MPH SFC WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS) AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EVEN WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AROUND. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 82 57 79 / 0 0 0 30
MERIDIAN 48 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 51 82 58 77 / 0 0 0 50
HATTIESBURG 48 85 55 83 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 51 83 60 78 / 0 0 10 50
GREENVILLE 52 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 40
GREENWOOD 52 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/KP
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