399
FXUS64 KJAN 241716 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE FOCUSED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE INFLUENCES OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT SOUTHERN
JET, THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES)
NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. LIFT, ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MOISTURE, AND THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL SET UP HEAVY RAINFALL
MAINLY TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND THEN OVER
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE'LL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LIMITED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE NEW WEEK, CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THEN AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH THE END THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S TO END THE
WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY POSE THE RISK FOR THE FIRST
FROST IN A FEW SPOTS FOR THIS SEASON - ESPECIALLY PROTECTED AREAS IF
WINDS GO CALM. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, MAINLY BEGINNING AFTER THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. BEYOND THIS TIME, CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY IN LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF +RA. TS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE INTO SAT NIGHT. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 80 59 72 / 0 50 60 80
MERIDIAN 54 80 56 70 / 0 20 30 70
VICKSBURG 58 78 61 73 / 0 70 80 80
HATTIESBURG 56 83 61 76 / 0 30 40 80
NATCHEZ 61 80 63 76 / 0 70 70 80
GREENVILLE 57 76 59 70 / 0 70 80 80
GREENWOOD 57 79 56 69 / 0 40 70 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/DL
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