660
FXUS64 KJAN 241856
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
156 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR AREAS WEST OF MS RIVER, EAST OF
I-55, AND SOUTH OF I-20..
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TOWARDS
THE ARKLAMISS REGION, RESULTING IN RAINFALL BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR FIRE DANGER IN EASTERN
MS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARDS, MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AN INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA,
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD OUTRUNNING GREATER FORCING
AND INSTABILITY. AS A LOW-LVL JET PUSHES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, IT WILL INCREASE SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND RESULT IN A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWAT VALUES RANGES BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2.0 INCHES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. RECENT
MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS SETTLING ALONG
THE GULF COASTLINE INSTEAD OF CLOSER TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND GREATEST MOISTURE
AXIS SETTLES, A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT FOR THE AREA.
SCENARIO 1:
CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP NEAR THE LOWER DELTA,
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST LA INTO
NORTHWEST MS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO I-20.
SCENARIO 2:
DUE TO STRONG JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE GULF COAST, LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS DOESN'T MOVE AS FAR NORTHWARD,
CONFINING THE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOUTH MS
(HWY 84/98 CORRIDOR) AND CENTRAL LA.
REGARDLESS OF SCENARIOS, TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ADJUSTED TO FLOODING GRAPHIC TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL AREAS
WEST OF I-55 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AXIS OVER THE
LOWER DELTA. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SEVERE HWO GRAPHIC.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND DEEPENS, NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTY WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH MS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PASSING OVER THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH, RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER AIR. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF
THE REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE
VEGETATION MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, MAINLY BEGINNING AFTER THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. BEYOND THIS TIME, CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY IN LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF +RA. TS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE INTO SAT NIGHT. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 57 80 59 74 / 0 50 80 90
MERIDIAN 53 81 56 70 / 0 20 50 80
VICKSBURG 58 77 62 76 / 0 70 90 80
HATTIESBURG 55 83 63 77 / 0 30 50 80
NATCHEZ 60 80 64 79 / 0 70 90 80
GREENVILLE 56 76 59 70 / 0 70 90 90
GREENWOOD 57 80 56 71 / 0 40 80 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SW/DL
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