433
FXUS64 KJAN 250043 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
743 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 AND MS RIVER AND
SOUTH OF I-20.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WATER VAPOR/RAP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER NM AND PROGGED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWS) INCREASING FROM LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO OVER
1 INCH AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR SO. THIS WILL DRIVE SOME INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK, WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS,
SOME 4F TO 10F ABOVE (52F TO 62F). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TOWARDS
THE ARKLAMISS REGION, RESULTING IN RAINFALL BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR FIRE DANGER IN EASTERN
MS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARDS, MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AN INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA,
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD OUTRUNNING GREATER FORCING
AND INSTABILITY. AS A LOW-LVL JET PUSHES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, IT WILL INCREASE SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND RESULT IN A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWAT VALUES RANGES BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2.0 INCHES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. RECENT
MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS SETTLING ALONG
THE GULF COASTLINE INSTEAD OF CLOSER TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND GREATEST MOISTURE
AXIS SETTLES, A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT FOR THE AREA.
SCENARIO 1:
CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP NEAR THE LOWER DELTA,
RESULTING IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST LA INTO
NORTHWEST MS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO I-20.
SCENARIO 2:
DUE TO STRONG JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE GULF COAST, LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS DOESN'T MOVE AS FAR NORTHWARD,
CONFINING THE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOUTH MS
(HWY 84/98 CORRIDOR) AND CENTRAL LA.
REGARDLESS OF SCENARIOS, TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ADJUSTED TO FLOODING GRAPHIC TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL AREAS
WEST OF I-55 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AXIS OVER THE
LOWER DELTA. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SEVERE HWO GRAPHIC.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND DEEPENS, NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTY WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH MS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PASSING OVER THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH, RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER AIR. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF
THE REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE
VEGETATION MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /SW/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS BEGIN SPREADING IN DURING THE
DAY, MAINLY AFTER 25/18-22Z SATURDAY. SOME CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF +RA. TS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NIGHT.
INTRODUCED LOW PROBS (30 PERCENT) IN THIS PACKAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.
/DL/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 57 80 59 / 0 0 50 80
MERIDIAN 82 53 81 56 / 0 0 20 50
VICKSBURG 82 58 77 62 / 0 0 70 90
HATTIESBURG 85 55 83 63 / 0 0 30 50
NATCHEZ 83 60 80 64 / 0 0 70 90
GREENVILLE 80 56 76 59 / 0 0 70 90
GREENWOOD 81 57 80 56 / 0 0 40 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SW/DL
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