487
FXUS64 KJAN 250635
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 AND
THE MS RIVER AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5
INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
TODAY & SUNDAY:
A LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
IS SET TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPARK
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW, THROUGH LOUISIANA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PETERING OUT BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG
ORGANIZATION CAUSED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL REINVORGATE THE
FRONT AND PROVIDE A MUCH STRONGER PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH MORE STOUT PWATS AND SPEED WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE FRONT TO FINALLY TRAVERSE THE MS RIVER. RAIN TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE 2-2.5 INCHES WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55 AND
SOUTH OF I- 20. THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
ALONG WITH GENERAL MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AREAS OF
INTEREST.
WHILE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH/EAST WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND UP TO 20KTS UNTIL SUNSET SUNDAY.
MONDAY ONWARDS:
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSHES ANY REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH, RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER AIR. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF
THE REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE
VEGETATION MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES, WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z
TODAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR RA AND TSRA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AT SITES ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. RAIN WILL
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING TAF
SITES FROM WEST TO EAST. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 59 71 60 / 50 80 90 60
MERIDIAN 81 57 69 57 / 10 40 90 70
VICKSBURG 78 62 74 60 / 70 90 90 30
HATTIESBURG 83 63 75 62 / 20 50 90 60
NATCHEZ 79 64 78 59 / 70 90 90 20
GREENVILLE 77 59 69 59 / 60 90 90 40
GREENWOOD 80 56 69 57 / 30 80 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/NF
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