574
FXUS64 KJAN 251210 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 AND
THE MS RIVER AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5
INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
TODAY & SUNDAY:
A LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
IS SET TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPARK
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW, THROUGH LOUISIANA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PETERING OUT BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG
ORGANIZATION CAUSED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL REINVORGATE THE
FRONT AND PROVIDE A MUCH STRONGER PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH MORE STOUT PWATS AND SPEED WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE FRONT TO FINALLY TRAVERSE THE MS RIVER. RAIN TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE 2-2.5 INCHES WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55 AND
SOUTH OF I- 20. THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
ALONG WITH GENERAL MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AREAS OF
INTEREST.
WHILE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH/EAST WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND UP TO 20KTS UNTIL SUNSET SUNDAY.
MONDAY ONWARDS:
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSHES ANY REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH, RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER AIR. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF
THE REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE
VEGETATION MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
APART FROM SOME PATCHY BR AT KHBG TO START THE TAF PERIOD, VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TODAY.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AT SITES WEST OF INTERSTATE
55 WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF VARIABLE CEILINGS. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES SPREAD EAST TO REAMING SITES BY 06Z SUNDAY, WITH INITIALLY
VARIABLE CEILINGS SETTLING TO MVFR OR IFR AT SITES ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 20 BY AROUND 03Z-06Z. ADDED TIMING OF MOST CONFIDENT
THUNDER IMPACTS INTO THE TAFS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 60 71 60 / 60 90 90 60
MERIDIAN 82 57 69 57 / 10 50 90 70
VICKSBURG 78 63 74 60 / 80 90 90 30
HATTIESBURG 83 63 75 62 / 30 60 90 60
NATCHEZ 79 63 78 59 / 90 100 90 20
GREENVILLE 76 60 69 59 / 70 100 90 40
GREENWOOD 80 56 69 57 / 40 90 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ARZ074-075.
OAJ/NF
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