828
FXUS64 KJAN 251456 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
956 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
LOCAL RADARS ALREADY SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST MOST PARISHES ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES NORTH TO ASHLEY COUNTY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
NO SEVERE OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY
PER THE 12Z SAT JAN SOUNDING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
TODAY & SUNDAY: A LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS SET TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SPARK WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW,
THROUGH LOUISIANA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PETERING OUT BY
THE TIME IT GETS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG ORGANIZATION CAUSED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL REINVIGORATE THE FRONT AND PROVIDE A MUCH STRONGER PUSH
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH MORE
STOUT PWATS AND SPEED WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO FINALLY
TRAVERSE THE MS RIVER. RAIN TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO BE 2-2.5 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTH OF I- 20. THERMAL AND
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH ALONG WITH GENERAL MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AREAS OF INTEREST.
WHILE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH/EAST WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND UP TO 20KTS UNTIL SUNSET SUNDAY.
MONDAY ONWARDS: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSHES ANY REMNANTS OF THE
PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH, RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW
60S/LOWS:LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST
FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO
PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
APART FROM SOME PATCHY BR AT KHBG TO START THE TAF PERIOD, VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TODAY.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AT SITES WEST OF INTERSTATE
55 WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF VARIABLE CEILINGS. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES SPREAD EAST TO REAMING SITES BY 06Z SUNDAY, WITH INITIALLY
VARIABLE CEILINGS SETTLING TO MVFR OR IFR AT SITES ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 20 BY AROUND 03Z-06Z. ADDED TIMING OF MOST CONFIDENT
THUNDER IMPACTS INTO THE TAFS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 60 71 60 / 60 90 90 60
MERIDIAN 82 57 69 57 / 10 50 90 70
VICKSBURG 78 63 74 60 / 80 90 90 30
HATTIESBURG 83 63 75 62 / 30 60 90 60
NATCHEZ 79 63 78 59 / 90 100 90 20
GREENVILLE 76 60 69 59 / 70 100 90 40
GREENWOOD 80 56 69 57 / 40 90 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-
059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ARZ074-075.
22/OAJ/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page