563
FXUS64 KJAN 251939
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: LOCAL RADARS SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF BUT THERE REMAINS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
ITS BASE. OVERALL, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED OVER MUCH OF
OUR CWA BUT CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL ENDING
IN OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
WILL BRING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT IN SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
OUR CWA. /22/
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
***NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST***
LINGERING SHOWERS (25-45% RAIN CHANCES) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH,
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE VEGETATION
MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SCATTERED -SHRA WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND RESULT
IN LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS AT TIMES BUT VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AFTER 01Z TSRA/SHRA WL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE WEST
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AWAY
FROM TSRA MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 73 60 72 / 80 90 60 20
MERIDIAN 57 70 58 71 / 50 90 80 40
VICKSBURG 63 76 59 71 / 90 90 30 10
HATTIESBURG 63 75 62 78 / 50 90 60 10
NATCHEZ 63 78 59 74 / 90 80 20 10
GREENVILLE 59 69 59 69 / 90 90 50 20
GREENWOOD 56 68 58 70 / 90 90 80 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-
059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ARZ074-075.
22/SW/22
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