948
FXUS64 KJAN 260444 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: LOCAL RADARS SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF BUT THERE REMAINS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
ITS BASE. OVERALL, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED OVER MUCH OF
OUR CWA BUT CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL ENDING
IN OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
WILL BRING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT IN SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
OUR CWA. /22/
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
***NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST***
LINGERING SHOWERS (25-45% RAIN CHANCES) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH,
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE VEGETATION
MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND
HAVE AFFECTED OUR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST SITES DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES,
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATER INTO THE NIGHT IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THESE
LOWERED CATEGORIES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED SO THEY ARE NOT
REPRESENTED IN THE TAFS, BUT GIVEN THE CONVOLUTED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, IT WAS WORTH A MENTION./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 61 73 60 / 60 80 90 60
MERIDIAN 76 57 70 58 / 20 50 90 80
VICKSBURG 74 64 76 59 / 50 90 90 30
HATTIESBURG 80 64 75 62 / 80 50 90 60
NATCHEZ 74 64 78 59 / 60 90 80 20
GREENVILLE 74 59 69 59 / 70 90 90 50
GREENWOOD 74 57 68 58 / 60 90 90 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-027-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.
22/SW/OAJ
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