660
FXUS64 KJAN 260903 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA OF CONCERN, ALONG AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. AT
THE MOMENT 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INFLOW-INDUCED MICROSCALE ROTATION WHICH
ENABLED THOSE PARTICULAR CELLS TO OVERACHIEVE ORGANIZATIONALLY;
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, OR A SHORT-LIVED
TORNADO. WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFIED AT THIS TIME BUT IF THE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO TREND THAT WAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND
IN KIND WITH THE APPROPRIATE WARNINGS. AS IT STANDS THE AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW-INDUCED ROTATION HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD, SHOULD THAT AREA MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH; THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NO LONGER SUPPORT IT AND WE EXPECT THE AREA TO
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/LESS ORGANIZED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON-FRANKLIN-CLAIBORNE COUNTIES, DUE TO
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 2-3" OVER A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ITS HARD TO SAY THAT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE JUSTIFIED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
RAIN TOTALS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTSIDE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING
AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE AREA WRIT LARGE
WITH GENERAL GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS SET TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. /OAJ/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: LOCAL RADARS SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF BUT THERE REMAINS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
ITS BASE. OVERALL, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED OVER MUCH OF
OUR CWA BUT CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL ENDING
IN OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
WILL BRING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT IN SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
OUR CWA. /22/
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
***NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST***
LINGERING SHOWERS (25-45% RAIN CHANCES) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH,
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE VEGETATION
MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND
HAVE AFFECTED OUR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST SITES DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES,
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATER INTO THE NIGHT IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THESE
LOWERED CATEGORIES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED SO THEY ARE NOT
REPRESENTED IN THE TAFS, BUT GIVEN THE CONVOLUTED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, IT WAS WORTH A MENTION./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 59 71 55 / 100 40 20 10
MERIDIAN 69 58 71 53 / 100 60 30 10
VICKSBURG 75 58 71 55 / 80 20 10 0
HATTIESBURG 75 61 77 56 / 100 40 10 10
NATCHEZ 77 58 73 54 / 70 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 69 58 66 55 / 80 30 10 10
GREENWOOD 68 57 68 54 / 90 50 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-027-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.
OAJ/OAJ/OAJ
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