637
FXUS64 KJAN 261003
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
- THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-2.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA OF CONCERN, ALONG AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. AT
THE MOMENT 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO INFLOW-INDUCED MICROSCALE ROTATION WHICH
ENABLED THOSE PARTICULAR CELLS TO OVERACHIEVE ORGANIZATIONALLY;
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, OR A SHORT-LIVED
TORNADO. WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFIED AT THIS TIME BUT IF THE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO TREND THAT WAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND
IN KIND WITH THE APPROPRIATE WARNINGS. AS IT STANDS THE AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW-INDUCED ROTATION HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD, SHOULD THAT AREA MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH; THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NO LONGER SUPPORT IT AND WE EXPECT THE AREA TO
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/LESS ORGANIZED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON-FRANKLIN-CLAIBORNE COUNTIES, DUE TO
CONTINUOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 2-3" OVER A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ITS HARD TO SAY THAT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE JUSTIFIED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
RAIN TOTALS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTSIDE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING
AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE AREA WRIT LARGE
WITH GENERAL GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS SET TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. /OAJ/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING OFF TO THE WEST WHICH WAS EXPECTED, BEFORE
A STRONG SECONDARY PUSH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GREATEST SOUTH OF I-20.
OVERALL, WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING A LINE OF THUNDER/SHOWERS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA; INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA HOWEVER: SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL
BRING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH
MID-MORNING AS WELL. AROUND NOON, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF,
DYING OUT IN THE WEST FIRST WITH AN EASTWARDS CLEARING AS THE CLOSED
LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. /OAJ/
MONDAY ONWARDS...
***NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST***
LINGERING SHOWERS (25-45% RAIN CHANCES) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH,
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE VEGETATION
MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /SW/OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND
HAVE AFFECTED OUR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST SITES DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES,
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATER INTO THE NIGHT IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THESE
LOWERED CATEGORIES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED SO THEY ARE NOT
REPRESENTED IN THE TAFS, BUT GIVEN THE CONVOLUTED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, IT WAS WORTH A MENTION./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 59 71 55 / 100 40 20 10
MERIDIAN 69 58 71 53 / 100 60 30 10
VICKSBURG 75 58 71 55 / 80 20 10 0
HATTIESBURG 75 61 77 56 / 100 40 10 10
NATCHEZ 77 58 73 54 / 70 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 69 58 66 55 / 80 30 10 10
GREENWOOD 68 57 68 54 / 90 50 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-027-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059-061.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/OAJ
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