997
FXUS64 KJAN 261602 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING RAINFALL THREATS HAVE ENDED.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT AND FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED OVER
OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL SHIFT EAST
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE CLOSED
LOW NOTED SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA CONTINUES SHIFTING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR CWA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY AND
THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING OFF TO THE WEST WHICH WAS EXPECTED, BEFORE
A STRONG SECONDARY PUSH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GREATEST SOUTH OF I-20.
OVERALL, WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING A LINE OF THUNDER/SHOWERS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA; INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA HOWEVER: SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL
BRING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH
MID-MORNING AS WELL. AROUND NOON, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF,
DYING OUT IN THE WEST FIRST WITH AN EASTWARDS CLEARING AS THE CLOSED
LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. /OAJ/
MONDAY ONWARDS...
***NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST***
LINGERING SHOWERS (25-45% RAIN CHANCES) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH,
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL USHER IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE (HIGHS:LOW 60S/LOWS:UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S), SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. SENSITIVE VEGETATION
MAY NEED TO BE COVER TO PROTECT FROM FROST DAMAGE. /SW/OAJ/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST FORECAST ZONES, AND HAVE
AFFECTED OUR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST SITES DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION. WHILE
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR
ALL SITES, AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT INTERMITTENT IFR
AND LIFR CONDITIONS JUST BEFORE SUNSET (OCT 26 23Z). THESE
LOWERED CATEGORIES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED SO THEY ARE NOT
REPRESENTED IN THE TAFS, BUT GIVEN THE CONVOLUTED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, IT WAS WORTH A MENTION. LATER TONIGHT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST SITES DUE TO A WEALTH OF
LATENT MOISTURE BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE DAY'S RAINFALL AND GENERALLY
STABLE CONDITIONS./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 59 71 55 / 60 40 20 10
MERIDIAN 69 58 71 53 / 90 60 30 10
VICKSBURG 75 58 71 55 / 50 20 10 0
HATTIESBURG 75 61 77 56 / 90 40 10 10
NATCHEZ 77 58 73 54 / 40 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 69 58 66 55 / 60 30 10 10
GREENWOOD 68 57 68 54 / 50 50 10 20
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/OAJ/
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