969
FXUS64 KJAN 270005
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AREAWIDE BY MORNING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW HAS HELPED SHIFT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EAST OF
MISSISSIPPI BUT THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND OVER OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS THE CWA, MODELS ARE
SHOWING DECENT PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
WHOLE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MORNING IF THE DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTH MONDAY WHILE OUR SOUTH HEATS
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER MONDAY
NIGHT, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
MORNING. /22/
TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEST RAIN CHANCES (50-85%
AREAWIDE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-45% THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING
REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LINGERING RAINFALL OUT
OF THE REGION. POST BOUNDARY PASSAGE, RIDGING PATTERN WILL SET UP
AND ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT, DRIER AIR AND
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON AS LOWS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR EARLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. TAKE PRECAUTION AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL FROST
TO ENSURE SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS PROTECTED. /SW/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH 06Z DUE TO
A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK. AFTER 06Z, MULTIPLE TAF SITES WILL SEE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 13Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WORSEN. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AFTER 13Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR CIGS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 72 55 74 / 20 10 10 20
MERIDIAN 58 72 53 70 / 60 20 10 10
VICKSBURG 60 72 55 76 / 10 0 0 30
HATTIESBURG 61 78 55 78 / 40 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 59 74 55 78 / 10 0 0 20
GREENVILLE 59 67 55 70 / 30 10 0 40
GREENWOOD 58 69 55 72 / 40 10 10 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/CR
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